Sunday, January 22, 2006

Member of Hizbullah almost assassinated

Hussein Assaf was almost assassinated as he was starting a meeting with Shaikh Muhammad Yazbek. A bomb in this car expoded after he entered into the house.

Of course the Israeli's are blamed for this; Israel denys any involvement.

But who stands to gain from this (and possibly all the other attacks)?

  • Israel - Possibly because Assaf was a trainer for Hizbullah's fighters. But what would this gain? Would this be a late 'punishment' for prior deads? Does not seem likely. Maybe to create more instability? I do not think so. But by blaming Israel (besides the usual 'Israel is the cause of ALL problems in the Middle East') Hizbullah is indirectly acknowledging that their organization either has spys in it and / or they have trusted members who do not believe in their cause.
  • France - Only possible reason I could think of is if France wanted instability in Lebanon, to retain some influence. But I think France is actually working towards the opposite goal - to help stabilize Lebanon.
  • United States - The US certainly does not see eye to eye with Hizbullah. Plus the US is working towards disarming the group. Although Hizullah and other groups do not (and can not) see that the US is trying, along side France, to help stabilize Lebanon. Another assassination is NOT stabilizing. Not on my list of suspects.
  • Russia - The Soviet Union was one of the masters at this type of stuff. The Middle East is always accusing the CIA of all kinds of mischief, whereas the KGB was (and it's current incarnation) highly likely to be able to pull off something of this nature. Possible motive could be to destablize Lebanon. Why do that? I have a feeling the Russians do not want Lebanon to look towards France (and the US to a significately lesser degree) for support. But more likely rationale for me would be the hit was to help their allies (see below.)
  • Saudi Arabia - A Sunni dominated country. Their ally was killed (Harrari.) Sunnis and Shiites do not get along - just look at what the nut al-Zarqawi is doing in Iraq (trying to start a Civil War in Iraq). al-Zarqawi (Sunni) has no issues slaughtering innocent women and children if they are Shiite. I can not picture a motive that would hold water though.
  • Jordan - Nope don't see any reason why
  • Iran - Oh now we are getting somewhere. Their agents are in Lebanon, and have been for a long time. Not exactly nice guys either. There have been reports of Iran supporting the insurgency in Iraq. Why continue this? To help establish their hedgemony over Iraq, via their proxies. But this insurgency is killing mostly Shiites'. It seems to me that Iranian leaders care less about who is killed (obviously with Americans being top on their list) in the attempt to get rid of ANY force in Iraq (other than theirs.) Having a democracy next door would be a bad thing too. But their recent obsession with (diverting attention from their Nuclear Bomb quest) destroying Israel, stroking the hate flames of Hizbullah serves their interest. A major flare up in the south of Lebanon, West Bank and Gaza only serves Iran's and Syria's interests. The bloodshed will be that of the hated Jews, Lebanese and Palestinians, not Iranian (I do not get the impression that the Syrian regime is smart enough to realize Iran is using Syria for Iran's interests only.) So kill one of your own agents / allies, stroke the flames, your allies attack Israel (hate blinds reason), Israel retailates, and we have the cycle continue. A major escalation in the Middle East only serves Iran's and possibly Syria's interests.
  • Syria - With the UN investigating the cowardly murder of Hariri, and the continous killing of Pro-Independance / anti-'Syrian Occupation of Lebanon' Lebanese, why not kill one of your allies to throw everyone off track? This way you can say someone else is doing the murders (AKA the US or Israel.) Might be possible.
  • Lebanon - could this be payback for something Hizbullah has done within Lebanon (that we are not being told about) ? Interesting concept. Maybe some group thinks Hizbullah is partially responsible for the assassinations going on. Hmm that is a worthy thought.
So there are the suspects that might have a hand in this. For Muslims I am sure the top of the list of course is Israel. But I look at this from the who gains from the attack. I do not think Israel gains nearly as much from this as does Syria or Iran. And personally I think Iran gains more from this than does Syria.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Iran is provoking war .. why

mynewsbot.com

1/22/2006 8:17 PM  
Blogger BobW said...

Is your question why is Iran provoking war?
If so, provoking war with whom?

1/22/2006 9:03 PM  
Blogger azcritter said...

Okay so you have identified several suspects, but ... zis it possible that the attack has no other motive hate - persons not of the same faith, culture, and race.

-just a thought

1/22/2006 9:16 PM  

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